Contents
Summary
January Spotlight: What is World Liberty
1. Performance
1.1 Top 10 Coins by Market Cap
1.2 Returns by Timezone
1.3 BTC Monthly Returns Matrix
1.4 BTC and ETH monthly returns YTD
1.5 Fear-Greed Index
1.6 BTC dominance
2. ETF Flows
2.1 Aggregate BTC ETF Flows
2.2 BTC ETF Flows in November
2.3 BTC ETF Share by Product
3. Basis & Funding Rates
3.1 CME Futures Basis (Monthly)
3.2 CME Futures Basis
3.3 OI-Weighted Funding APR
3.4 Futures Basis
4. Liquidity, Volumes, Liquidations
4.1 Spot BTC Order Book Depth
4.2 Spot Order Book Ask-Bid Difference
4.3 Total Derivatives Volume
4.4 Perpetual Futures Liquidations
5. Options
5.1. BTC and ETH Put/Call Ratio
5.2. Skew
5.3. Risk Reversals
5.4. Butterfly
5.5. IV
5.6. RV
5.7. IV-RV
5.8. Term Structure
5.9. ETH-BTC IV Spread
6. On-Chain
6.1. TVL $ Change
6.2. TVL/MC Ratio Change
6.3. DAU Change
6.4. Average Daily Transaction Count
6.5. Average Daily Transaction Fee
Appendix
Data Partners
Summary
With the Presidential inauguration occurring in January, it was always going to be a month dominated by Trump headlines. However, the velocity of crypto-related news driven by the Trump family came as a bit of a surprise to the market. The family launched $TRUMP and $MELANIA, and the Trump-controlled World Liberty Financial raised strategic rounds and conducted a public token sale (more on this in the next section). For more on Trump’s policies and what to expect, please refer to Welcome to Trump’s Presidential Term #2 (21 Jan 25).
Featured in the December 2024 Flow Report, $XRP continued to shine, leading January in returns amongst the top 10 market cap coins (Figure 1.1).
As crypto assets rallied into Trump’s 20Jan25 inauguration (Figure 1.1), perpetual futures APR (as a proxy for positioning on crypto exchanges) and CME futures basis (reflects institutional positioning) deviated: perp APRs rose into the inauguration (Figure 3.3) while the CME basis compressed into negative territory (Figure 3.1), indicating retail and crypto native traders chasing the rally while institutional traders taking or locking in a profit.
This institutional mindset was reflected in the options market as we can see in the negative BTC 25-delta skew (Figure 5.2a), with values dropping to their monthly lows across most timeframes. This was accompanied by ATM IVs hitting monthly highs also across most timeframes (Figure 5.5) and the 30-day IV-RV spread hitting monthly highs on inauguration day (Figure 5.7).
There was an interesting phenomenon in liquidity, again around the inauguration date, as order book depths in spot $BTC and $ETH markets dried dramatically, driven by Bitfinex’s abrupt liquidity deterioration (Figure 4.1).
