Contents:
1. Performance
1.1 November returns
1.2 Timezone Analysis
1.3 Monthly Return Matrix
1.4 BTC and ETH Monthly Returns
1.5 Fear-Greed Index
1.6 BTC Dominance
2. ETF Flows
2.1 All-Time Aggregate BTC ETF Flows
2.2 Total BTC ETF Flows in November
2.3 BTC ETF November Share
3. Funding Rates
3.1 OI-Weighted Funding APR
3.2 BTC Futures 30-day Basis
3.3 ETH Futures 30-day Basis
4. Volume and Liquidations
4.1 Total Derivatives Volume
4.2 Perpetual Futures Liquidations
5. Options
5.1 Put/Call Ratio
5.2 Skew
5.3 Risk Reversal
5.4 Butterfly
5.5 IV
5.6 RV
5.7 IV-RV Spread
5.8 Term Structure
5.9 ETH-BTC IV Spread
6. On-Chain
6.1 TVL $ Change
6.2 TVL/MCap Ratio Change
6.3 DAU Change
6.4 Average Daily Transaction Count
6.5 Average Daily Transaction Fee
Takeaway
The main story of November was the U.S. elections and Trump’s decisive victory over Harris that, along with the red sweep, boosted investor confidence around risk assets including cryptocurrencies. BTC and ETH finished the month up 38.86% and 47.65% respectively, with the former outperforming its historic average by a conclusive margin (Figure 1.1, Figure 1.3). With these election results came the conviction that Gensler’s time was up in January - confirmed in late November - and Trump’s nominations of crypto-friendlies in Washington including Elon Musk as co-head of a new organisation (aptly named DOGE, Department of Government Efficiency) as well as Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary. Perhaps it was because the driver of price action was “traditional” (read: macro) rather than crypto-native, but to the surprise of many crypto traders, the top 3 performers of large cap coins for the month were the legacy heavyweights of $XRP, $ADA, and $DOGE (Figure 1.1).
November was the first month since May this year that ETH outperformed BTC (Figure 1.4). In a similar story, BTC dominance dropped three-percentage-points from 60.24% to 57.24%, in its sharpest drop of the year (Figure 1.6). Although historically BTC December returns have been very mixed, with 5 a piece for up and down months, given that it will take a 56% drawdown for BTC to end the year negative, investors can be confident that we are in for another up year in 2024 (Figure 1.3).
See the PDF for the full report.